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 It’s November 10 2026, and this week on Uranium Spotlight, utilities and the pace of term contracting, Kazakhstan’s acid problem, Uzbekistan’s expansion plans, and a Sprott trust stuck at a discount. 

Utilities Lead the Way

The spot price opened last week at $92.20 per pound U3O8 and closed on Friday at $92.15 per pound U3O8. That steadiness followed a busy last day of October, when seven deals crossed the market. Early November was slower, with six spot deals totaling almost 600,000 pounds, all for prompt delivery. Some buyers paused after the previous week’s price increase, and sellers adjusted their offers to find the new level.

Term contracting is where the real story sits. Term contracting so far this year stands at more than 83 million pounds, against about 48 million at the end of October last year. That volume comes from 44 utility deals. Most of each year’s volume is signed in the fourth quarter, and about 40 million pounds has been added since October began. Last year’s fourth quarter totaled about 70 million pounds. More is coming. A US utility is reviewing offers for up to 1.2 million pounds starting in 2028. Three more utilities are expected to issue formal requests.

The Sprott trust is trading at a 16% discount to net asset value. It has bought 250,000 pounds since the end of June, with its last purchase on July 30. The trust can only raise new money at or above net asset value, so financial buying has stalled.

The long term price stood at $97.00 per pound U3O8 at the end of October, above spot. That gap shows utilities paying for security of supply rather than the cheapest pound today. Fuel security is also shaping supply, as Russian and Chinese acid export restrictions press on Central Asian producers. On the demand side, reactor construction continues, with China pouring first concrete for a new high temperature gas cooled reactor.

For investors, the key takeaway is that utility contracting has already outrun last year’s pace. Even so, this volume sits below the roughly 150 million pounds a year needed to replace what reactors burn. The fourth quarter total, not the daily spot price, will show whether utilities are catching up.

The Acid Test

Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer, released its third quarter update this past week. Production rose 12% to 18.76 million pounds on a 100% basis. All 2026 guidance was left unchanged, including a production range of about 71 million to 75 million pounds. Sales volumes were notably higher, helped by joint venture ramp ups. The average realized price climbed 18% to $81.50 per pound.

The company’s chief executive also briefed the country’s president on progress this year. That included new supply contracts signed with buyers in India and China, which widen the customer base. The company also received a licence to explore a new block that may hold about 26 million pounds.

Strong numbers still leave one question hanging, and it is acid. Kazakhstan’s in situ mines depend on sulphuric acid, and supply is squeezed from two directions. Russia has limited acid exports through the end of the year. The company says this changed approval procedures rather than banning shipments, and it expects no material effect on 2026 output.

Talks over 2027 supplies are still continuing. Turning to China is no easy fix. The world’s largest acid producer halted exports in May, as the conflict in the Middle East tightened sulphur supply. The company’s own new acid plant is now expected to start only in late 2027 or early 2028.

This matters because Kazakhstan supplies roughly a fifth of the world’s primary uranium. Western utilities are watching a supplier whose output depends on chemical inputs exposed to export decisions in Moscow and Beijing.

The message here is that supply security now sets the value of uranium as much as supply volume does. A producer can post strong output and still face a constraint it does not control. That strengthens the case for projects in stable jurisdictions that do not rely on imported reagents.

Uzbekistan Aims Higher

Next door, Uzbekistan wants to double its uranium output by 2030. The government’s target is 15,000 tonnes a year, or about 39 million pounds. That compares with a projected 19.5 million pounds this year.

The state producer is already benefiting from higher prices. First half revenue reached $795 million, more than double last year, and the average realized price rose 25% to $86.06 per pound. A new in situ deposit also began commercial production in April, with capacity of about 3.1 million pounds a year. Its customers span the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, so this is supply that serves both western and eastern buyers.

Reaching the target will take far more than ambition. It requires new deposits, more exploration, fresh financing and, above all, sulphuric acid. The government also wants to lift its reserves to about 520 million pounds by 2030. The government wants alternative reagents to make up 40% of extraction by 2030, an admission of how exposed the sector is.

The wider region faces the same bottleneck. Kazakhstan’s acid plant is delayed, and Russian and Chinese restrictions narrow the alternatives. Producers likely hold some reserves of acid that will carry them through this year. Expansion plans look far more exposed once those reserves are drawn down.

Central Asia can still grow, but only if its chemical supply chains hold. When a state producer plans to cut its dependence on acid, it is telling the market where the real risk sits. That risk looks very different from drilling a new deposit in a politically stable jurisdiction.

Value Without Buyers

The Sprott trust now holds 81.7 million pounds of physical uranium, worth about $7.6 billion at net asset value. Net assets have climbed from about $6.2 billion at the start of the year. The trust has added about 7 million pounds over that time.

Buying has now gone quiet, and the discount explains why. The trust traded at a premium on only 6 days in the second quarter and on none in the third. Without a premium, it cannot raise the new money it needs to buy. Through October, the trust’s net asset value rose about 12% this year. Its market price was roughly flat.

That matters because the trust has been a steady financial buyer of uranium since 2021. With that buyer on the sidelines, the physical market leans more heavily on utilities and producers. Sprott’s own analysts have argued that the recent selloff in uranium equities reflects liquidity pressure rather than weaker fundamentals.

Contracting data supports that view. Utilities have signed far more term volume than at this point last year, even though total volume remains below replacement levels.

For investors, the metal itself remains firm while the vehicles for owning it are priced for caution. A trust trading 16% below the value of the uranium it holds measures financial sentiment, not reactor demand. Keeping those two apart is the most useful way to read the weeks ahead.

Beyond Hurricane

IsoEnergy reported assay results from its summer drilling at the Larocque East project, in the eastern Athabasca Basin. IsoEnergy is a joint venture partner of Purepoint on the Dorado project.

The focus is the Hurricane deposit, which holds 48.6 million pounds at a grade of 34.5% U3O8 in the indicated category. High grade is the defining feature of this asset, and the new results extend it.

Uranium was confirmed in 18 of 26 summer holes along 550 metres of strike on the south trend. The standout hole sits about 500 metres east of the deposit and included an interval of 15.4% U3O8 over half a metre. Another hole inside the southern edge of Hurricane intersected grades well above what had been modelled for that area.

Why does it matter? The assays confirm earlier handheld radioactivity readings, which turns a promising signal into measured grade. Hurricane also sits about 40 kilometres from the McClean Lake mill, at a depth near 325 metres. Along the same fault system, six holes over a 140 metre trend each cut more than 1% over at least half a metre.

The same Larocque Trend hosts high grade occurrences on the Dawn Lake joint venture of Cameco and Orano. Intervals are drill hole lengths rather than true thickness, so the next steps matter. Multi element results are still pending, and the company is using results from 43 holes to design 2027 drilling.

Investors should keep in mind that discovery value still comes from grade, location and jurisdiction. Central Asian growth leans on imported chemicals and export permits. A step out of this quality near existing infrastructure needs neither. That is why a 500 metre extension carries more weight than its size suggests.

Disclaimer: Uranium Spotlight is your weekly podcast dedicated to the latest developments shaping the uranium fuel market and its role in the global energy landscape, sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group. While our passion for the sector is undeniable, nothing discussed here should be considered investment advice. Our mission is to provide a clear, balanced view of the forces influencing uranium prices and the nuclear fuel cycle. For deeper analysis and market briefings, visit purepoint.ca.