It’s September 29th, 2026, and this week on Uranium Spotlight, the market starts asking when rather than if. We also cover a political fight over uranium in New Mexico and new strain on the acid behind ISR mining. We close with China’s stake in Etango.
When, Not If
Spot uranium came alive as the fall buying season got underway, but the extra activity brought slightly softer pricing. The spot price opened the week at $89.85 per pound U3O8 and closed at $89.60 per pound U3O8.
Nine transactions were reported during the week, and seven of them landed on Thursday alone. Sellers were met by firm bids from several buyers. Those bids simply sat a little lower, and the price eased back into the close.
The term market was quiet, with no new utility requests or contract awards reported. That quiet looks temporary, because offers are due this week on several utility tenders. One American utility alone is seeking up to 1.3 million pounds for delivery between 2028 and 2032. The long term price held at $96.00 per pound U3O8, which remains at a record level.
The more revealing signal came from a recent survey of utilities and suppliers. Most participants expect both spot and long term prices to keep rising through year end and beyond. On the long term price, the question has shifted from whether it reaches $100 to when.
Just as telling, nearly every respondent agreed that new supply capacity tends to arrive later than planned. A broad consensus also believes far more mine capacity is needed beyond what is already committed through 2040. The survey carried one caution. Many participants worry that rising fuel costs could eventually slow new reactor development, particularly for small and advanced reactors.
For investors, the key takeaway is that buyers themselves now accept higher prices as the cost of security. When utilities agree that new supply will arrive late, they tend to contract earlier rather than wait. That behaviour supports the long term price far more than any single week of spot trading.
The New Mexico Question
New Mexico holds some of the largest uranium resources in the United States, and the industry is preparing to return after decades of inactivity. That return now faces a political test in November’s election for governor.
Former Interior Secretary Haaland is the Democratic nominee, and she has called for a moratorium on renewed uranium mining in the state. She argues that uranium mining harmed New Mexico communities in the past and could do so again. Her Republican opponent rejects a blanket ban and favours reviewing projects one at a time.
This is more than campaign rhetoric. Earlier this month, the State Land Commissioner issued an executive order banning uranium exploration and mining on state lands. The commissioner is also Haaland’s running mate, which suggests the policy direction is already taking shape.
The state’s clean energy industry association pushed back quickly. It noted that no new uranium lease has been granted on state lands in more than a decade. It also argued that comparing today’s industry with legacy problems from 60 years ago is misleading.
That legacy is real. The Grants mineral belt once hosted one of the largest open pit uranium mines in the world, and parts of the region still carry the scars. But that era predates the state’s 1993 Mining Act and the environmental standards that now govern the industry.
Today’s projects are built largely around in situ recovery. Rather than excavating ore, ISR circulates a solution through the deposit underground and pumps the uranium to surface. The method is now standard practice across the United States and much of the world.
The pipeline is substantial. It includes Laramide Resources’ Crownpoint Churchrock project and Premier American Uranium’s Cebolleta. Uranium Energy Corp and Verdera Energy also hold ground in the state. This week, Americas Uranium also completed its acquisition of the Treeline project from Verdera. Much of this ground sits on private or federal land, but projects still need state environmental permits. That gives the next governor real influence over development timelines.
For investors, the lesson is that jurisdiction risk is not confined to Africa or Central Asia. A moratorium would not end New Mexico’s uranium story, but it could push development years into the future. In a market already short of new supply, that delay has a price. It rewards projects in jurisdictions with settled rules.
The Acid Test
Sulphuric acid rarely makes headlines, yet it has become one of the most important inputs in global uranium supply. ISR mining in Kazakhstan depends on it, and Kazakhstan produces roughly 40% of the world’s mined uranium.
Acid supply was already under pressure before this week. Most sulphuric acid is made from sulphur recovered during oil and gas processing, and the Persian Gulf is a major exporter. The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has tightened that supply, and acid prices have more than doubled in some key markets.
Now Russia has added a new layer of uncertainty. On September 12th, Moscow introduced temporary controls on sulphuric acid exports that run until the end of the year. The measures stop short of an outright ban, but export volumes now require government approval.
Russia is a key acid supplier to Kazakhstan and to Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium producer. Kazatomprom says its Russian suppliers have confirmed they will honour existing contracts for 2026. The company does not expect a material impact on this year’s production guidance.
That reassurance deserves some caution. Submitting export paperwork is not the same as receiving approval, and supply terms for 2027 are still being negotiated. This is not a hypothetical risk either. Acid shortages have already forced Kazatomprom to trim its production plans in recent years.
The pressure also reaches well beyond Kazakhstan. This week, Peninsula Energy temporarily shut in lower grade wells at its Lance ISR project in Wyoming. The company pointed to current acid prices as the reason. Lance is an exception in the United States, where most ISR operations use an alkaline solution rather than acid. That leaves most American producers less exposed to this particular squeeze.
For investors, the key point is that acid has become both a cost variable and a security variable in uranium supply. Even if Russian approvals come through, higher reagent costs raise the price needed to bring new ISR pounds to market. That strengthens the case for high grade conventional deposits, where acid consumption per pound produced is far lower.
Beijing Buys Into Etango
Bannerman Energy has completed its strategic financing with a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corporation for the Etango project in Namibia. The Chinese partner now holds an effective 42.75% interest, while Bannerman retains 52.25% and a Namibian foundation holds 5%.
The partner invested $294.5 million into the joint venture and reimbursed Bannerman $25.9 million for costs already incurred. Bannerman says it is now fully funded for its share of construction without taking on project debt. A final investment decision and full construction are expected in the fourth quarter of this year.
The price of that funding is offtake. The Chinese partner secures 60% of Etango’s production for the life of the mine at market based pricing. Bannerman keeps marketing control over the remaining 40%.
Western developers have struggled to finance new mines, even with spot prices near $90. Bannerman found its answer in Beijing, and it is unlikely to be the last developer to do so. Etango now joins Husab and Rössing as Namibian mines with major Chinese state ownership.
The timing is telling. With Kazakh supply exposed to acid disruption, China has every reason to diversify its sources now. Each deal of this kind deepens the split between eastern and western uranium supply chains. Meanwhile, Canada’s next generation of Athabasca mines could return it to the top of global production.
For investors, the message is that uncommitted pounds in stable jurisdictions are becoming scarcer. Every pound locked up by a Chinese buyer is a pound western utilities cannot contract. That makes undeveloped supply in North America increasingly strategic, and increasingly valuable.
Disclaimer: Uranium Spotlight is your weekly podcast dedicated to the latest developments shaping the uranium fuel market and its role in the global energy landscape, sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group. While our passion for the sector is undeniable, nothing discussed here should be considered investment advice. Our mission is to provide a clear, balanced view of the forces influencing uranium prices and the nuclear fuel cycle. For deeper analysis and market briefings, visit purepoint.ca.