It’s November 3, 2026 and this week on Uranium Spotlight, we start with a spot market on the rise while term buyers hold back. Then Kazakhstan plans a giant uranium reserve, Russia and China push into Namibia, and Hungary turns toward the West. We close with Cameco’s third quarter.

Spot Wakes, Term Waits

The spot price opened last week at $89.85 per pound U3O8 and closed on Friday at $92.65 per pound U3O8. That is a gain of $2.80, and it followed weeks of near stillness.

A brokered utility request pulled buyers back on Tuesday, and sellers raised their offers every day after that. The week produced 19 spot transactions, more than all of September combined. Even so, October spot volume totalled close to 3 million pounds, which is still a thin market.

Term contracting so far this year: 82.4 million pounds, against 50.5 million at this point last year. That is a gain of more than 60%, and utilities are clearly further along than they were a year ago. The fourth quarter still matters most, because that is when most of each year’s volume is signed. Through October, utilities awarded just 4.4 million pounds, against about 70 million in each of the last two fourth quarters.

Last week brought two term awards totalling 2 million pounds, both for delivery starting in 2031. Neither came close to 15 million pounds. A U.S. utility has also asked for up to 1.2 million pounds, with offers due this Friday.

The Sprott trust is trading at a 12.77% discount to net asset value and has bought no pounds since its last purchase on May 11. A trust can only raise new money when it trades at or above net asset value. It did not reach that line on a single day last quarter.

Costs are the quiet theme running underneath all of this. Higher prices for reagents, fuel, steel and labour are raising the cost of every pound, from the mine through conversion and enrichment. That matters for new supply. The long term price stood at $97.00 per pound U3O8 at the October month end, and it has to cover those higher costs.

Fuel security is also shaping procurement. Three utilities outside the United States have asked suppliers for uranium, conversion and enrichment together, with deliveries starting in 2030 or 2031.

For investors, the key takeaway is that spot follows the signals rather than leading them, and right now the signals are split. Utilities have contracted far more than a year ago, yet the Sprott discount, equity prices and junior financings have not improved. Spot is where utilities top up, while term is where they commit, and only term contracts underwrite new mines.

Kazakhstan Builds a Vault

Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer, has unveiled a plan to build a very large strategic uranium reserve before 2050. The country’s president raised the idea in his annual address last week, and the numbers now attached to it are striking.

The reserve is reported at roughly 330 million pounds, far more than the country mines in a single year. If that volume were built evenly over the next 24 years, it would remove about 13 million pounds from the market each year. That is a little under 10% of world production, which stands near 150 million pounds a year.

The head of the country’s atomic energy agency described a multi level system covering the whole fuel supply chain. It would run from deposits left in the ground to physical stockpiles of natural uranium and ready to use fuel. That means every stage of the fuel cycle could feel it, including milling, conversion and enrichment.

It is not yet clear whether the 330 million pounds includes the uranium left underground and the converted or enriched material. The president also urged faster reactor construction, with the first plant possibly starting as early as 2027. Other producers would have to adjust their production schedules and mine restart timelines to a market with this much material set aside.

For investors, the key takeaway is that the details are thin, and how fast the stockpile grows will shape the market more than the headline number. Equities remain unsettled, and higher prices have not yet reached producer revenues. A producer state that locks away its own supply is signalling what it expects of future prices.

The Scramble for Namibia

Rosatom, Russia’s state owned nuclear company, is moving into Namibia. It first described a recent approval as permission to begin operations at its Wings in situ leach project.

Namibia’s own environmental portal still lists the pilot application as under review, so the approval appears to cover test drilling only. Permits for a full mine are still to come.

The move fits a wider pattern, with Russia building its influence in Namibia’s nuclear sector alongside long time partner China. China is not part of this project, but it has a hand in nearly every other operating mine in the country. Namibia has long been neutral ground in the competition between East and West for uranium, and that neutrality is eroding.

Now look at the wider map. Namibia, the world’s third largest producer, is attracting Russian and Chinese capital. Kazakhstan leans heavily on Chinese interests and is now stockpiling, while Australia is held back by an anti-nuclear legal framework.

That leaves Canada as the one pro-nuclear, pro-democracy country producing significant uranium, with world class, high grade deposits in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin.

For investors, the key takeaway is that jurisdiction is becoming a price factor of its own. Western utilities that want uranium from stable, allied countries have fewer places to look, and the Athabasca Basin is chief among them.

Hungary Turns West

Hungary has revealed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States. It was signed in February, and the government submitted it to Parliament on October 28.

The terms reportedly give American companies first shot at building Hungary’s future nuclear plants. Washington would also help arrange financing. Observers expect Parliament to pass it, and the government would certainly support the move.

That follows last week’s story that Hungary is reconsidering Russia’s role in building its Paks 2 plant. Rosatom says construction is continuing, but the government is reviewing the project’s cost, schedule and financing. A decision could come by early 2027, and completion is now seen no earlier than 2034.

Taken together, these two weeks look like a strategic withdrawal from Russia’s sphere of influence in nuclear. They also suggest Hungary may be more open to a European Union ban on Russian uranium. Such a ban would put Rosatom, and the supply chains built around it, into a serious crisis.

For investors, the key takeaway is that the western and eastern fuel markets keep pulling apart. Each country that leaves the Russian orbit adds to the demand for western supply, and that means reliable producers in friendly jurisdictions. 

Cameco Looks Past the Outage

Cameco reported third quarter results on Friday, and the shares fell 9% on the day. The company posted an adjusted loss of C$2 million, compared with adjusted earnings of C$32 million a year ago.

Much of it was planned. The Key Lake mill began a longer maintenance outage, cutting quarterly production by 20%. The cost of each pound produced rose 58%, to C$57.40. Westinghouse added to the gap, because last year’s results included a large payment on the Dukovany project in the Czech Republic. Underneath, Westinghouse improved, with Cameco’s share of its adjusted EBITDA up 15% in the quarter.

What matters more is the contract book. Cameco has average annual deliveries of more than 28 million pounds contracted over the next five years. On the earnings call, management said utilities are still contracting less than they consume, and that Cameco is signing selectively. The company said it will not chase volume at the expense of value.

Here is a detail worth noticing. Cameco expects to deliver about 10 million pounds more than it mines this year. It fills the gap with purchases from its Kazakh joint venture, purchases in the market, and inventory. Even the largest western producer is also a buyer.

Cost pressure is not unique to Cameco. Boss Energy’s Honeymoon mine in Australia reported a 13% rise in all in sustaining costs from the prior quarter. The reactor side keeps filling in as well. A September framework between Washington and Seoul anticipates up to US$120 billion for new American reactors, including six Westinghouse AP1000s. It is non-binding and still needs definitive agreements.

Next, watch for 2027 guidance, expected in February, and for the updated technical report on McArthur River, due within 45 days.

For investors, the key takeaway is that a producer working Athabasca ore is posting sharply higher unit costs. If that is true there, every developer will face the same pressure. That is why new supply needs higher long term prices, and why a weak earnings quarter is not a weak fuel market.

Disclaimer: Uranium Spotlight is your weekly podcast dedicated to the latest developments shaping the uranium fuel market and its role in the global energy landscape, sponsored by Purepoint Uranium Group. While our passion for the sector is undeniable, nothing discussed here should be considered investment advice. Our mission is to provide a clear, balanced view of the forces influencing uranium prices and the nuclear fuel cycle. For deeper analysis and market briefings, visit purepoint.ca.